If like many property investors you’re asking has the property market bottomed – you’re asking the wrong question!

Over the last week I’ve had a number of questions from the media and even more from clients asking me what’s going on in property and how much further will property values fall.

I guess this is because the latest figures came out showing that median house price are flat in some parts of Australia and still falling in others.

So I thought I’d give you my take on it and I’m sure not everyone will agree with me.

That’s O.K. because I love sparking debate and getting people thinking about what I’m saying.

How do you know what’s really going on?

The problem is, most people just take the information that the media spoon feeds them as truth, and they miss out on opportunities because they don’t really understand what’s going on.

Today, I wanted to give you one of the most important insights that I ever gained as an investor, because it opened up a whole new world of opportunity for me.

We already know that currently there’s a lot of debate about whether the real estate market has “hit the bottom.” Is property just too unaffordable? Are prices going down more?  Is the worst behind us?  Are they going back up?

This kind of debate sells lots of newspapers, but the reality is that sophisticated investors don’t care whether the market has bottomed out yet.  It doesn’t matter.

Here’s why…

A very, different, but critical insight

The moment you leave your success or failure up to what direction the market goes, you’re in TROUBLE.

Buying any kind of asset because you’re trying to “time the market” and hoping it goes up puts you in serious jeopardy.

You have no control over your returns, and you’re making one of the most common mistakes I see investors make – and that’s speculating rather than investing.

Timing the market is what unsuccessful investors do.

Here’s What Smart Investors Do?To Create Long-Term Wealth:

1. First, they become educated in a specific asset or investment strategy. 

They read, they learn, and they understand.  They don’t just throw money into an investment on a “hot tip” or because everyone else is doing it.

By the way if you’d really like to learn the property investment strategy that has worked for me for close to 40 years please join me at my upcoming 1 day trainings.

Click here to get all the details now to join Rolf Schaefer, Ken Raiss and me at my “National Property & Economic Market Updates”

2. Second, they choose an investment strategy that suits the market. 

I can’t emphasize this enough.  This is why most investors fail – they choose the wrong strategy for the market they’re in.

I learned years ago that there is no such thing as the “perfect strategy”.  It doesn’t exist.  There are always pros and cons.  And most importantly is choosing your strategy based on your market.

It may interest you to know that over the last year I’ve sold three properties because of what I see happening to our property markets (yes sometimes I do sell my properties) and I’ve committed my money to other properties instead.

When you join me at my 1 day training I’ll explain exactly what I’m doing and why. Click here  to find out all the details and join me.

Here’s the main message I wanted to pass on to you today…

If you’re waiting for the marketing to “hit the bottom”, you’ve MISSED THE POINT.

The only way you’ll know the market has bottomed is in hindsight – and if you were trying to wait until the bottom came, you’ll have missed it by the time you can see that it came!

So what should you do?

Instead of try to do what is almost impossible (timing the market), the better strategy is to get educated, and find out what truly is working in today’s markets.

I’ve found that timing is one of the most misunderstood concepts with regard to investing. The truth is successful investors know how to create wealth at any point in a cycle.

Of course timing matters – you don’t want to buy a property at the peak of the property boom, just to wait three or four years before its value starts to rise again.

But successful investors find that timing isn’t really that important.

Have you noticed how some investors seem to do well in good times and do even better in bad times?

Market timing isn’t really important to them? On the other hand others do poorly in good times and even worse in bad times? Market timing seems to have very little effect on them either.

Interesting isn’t it?

Another important point…

Is that there are multiple property markets.

I just looked up the latest statistics and found that over the last year there were a number of suburbs in most states where the median price increased by over 20% (yes over the last 12 months). And there were other suburbs where the median price fell by over 20%.

I’m not necessarily suggesting you buy in these suburbs – in fact there are one or two I would definitely avoid.

But what I’m saying is that while some investors are getting in the game taking advantage of some of the best buying conditions property investors have experienced in a long, long time; others are waiting for the timing to be perfect.

How will I know when the timing is right?

It wasn’t that long ago that I spoke with John who had been waiting for over 10 years for the timing to be ‘just right’ to start investing in property.

The timing will never be ‘just right.’ There will always be challenges, situations, circumstances, obstacles, fears, doubts and things that you are going to have to overcome. The timing is never going to be perfect.

Ten years ago John saw some obstacles and didn’t get into property investment. If he did, chances are that wherever he bought his property it would have doubled in value by now, even if he had made a mistake and paid a little bit too much or bought in the wrong street.

It’s a fact that wealth is attracted to people who are decisive and committed. If you are waiting for the timing to be perfect – the timing will never be perfect to you.

A window of opportunity?

Currently property investors are being offered a unique window of opportunity, a buyer’s market unlike anything they have seen for a long time.

Sure there are economic challenges out there, but testing times create great opportunities.

Walt Disney started the company that became Disney just at the start of the Great Depression. Bill Gates began Microsoft’s march to world domination in a recession. Jeff Bezos launched Amazon in 1994 during a recession.

The list is long of wealthy Australian property investors who sewed the seeds of their portfolio in the early 90’s property slump, or the property slump of the early 2000’s with “remarkably poor timing.” These successful investors were busy doing while others were pondering.

Yes, we’re going though a property slump and a major change in the economic landscape.

While the timing might seem unfavourable to some property investors right now, others are going to do very well over the next few years. That’s the way it always has been.

via propertyupdate.com.au

We usually start with a quote and “no crash – people are just storing their nuts for winter – and missing out on great buying opportunities”; which comes from one of our investor subscribers; and sums up the current local market situation quite well.

Brisbane is at the bottom of the cycle and is set to improve.  Three things drive a property cycle north – confidence, supply/demand and jobs.  Confidence is on the mend, the Brisbane new housing market remains undersupplied and a plethora of new resource and infrastructure projects will help drive future job growth.

Vacancy rates remain tight and rents are now growing well above inflation.  This will drive prices upward in coming years.  Sales are finally starting to improve too, albeit from a low-base.

Despite these fundamentals, selling new residential property remains a difficult task; even well-priced, positioned and designed product is still difficult to shift.

The more frugal market isn’t responding to the current sales messages, nor the more traditional vehicles that deliver them.  A new approach – or at least a refresh – is needed.

via matusikmissive.wordpress.com

Borrowing to the hilt to buy your home may have been a reasonably safe bet ten years ago when property prices were on a steep upward trajectory. But in today’s flat market, where house prices are either stagnating in some areas and falling others, it’s a much riskier proposition that could see you owe more than you own.

According to a report in the Sydney Morning Herald, one in fifty households have found themselves in a position of negative equity. In other words, their homes are worth less than the size of their mortgage.

And given the outlook for Australia’s property markets over the coming year is not much rosier than what we saw in 2011, the number of homeowners in this position could swell over 2012.

Estimates suggest that Western Australia and Queensland have the most households in this precarious position, with 4.5 per cent and 3.2 per cent of households respectively being in a position of negative equity.

They are followed by South Australia, where 2.1 per cent of households are “under water” on their mortgages, Tasmania at 1.5 per cent, Victoria at 1.2 per cent and faring slightly better is New South Wales with only 1 per cent.

What this means for our markets?

Concerns have been raised regarding the potential negative impact the emergence of a sector of the housing market “under water” on their mortgages may have.

Given that potential borrowers are already “edgy” and holding off entering the markets and that our housing markets are vulnerable to sudden shifts in local economic or consumer conditions; experts suggest forced sales at this point would not only make a considerable dent in household wealth, but resulting further drops in property prices would scare investors out of the market.

Principal research fellow at the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling,  Ben Philips, was involved in the analysis that uncovered 60,000 Australian households with negative equity.

“The prospect of negative returns will certainly detract from sentiment through 2012,” said Mr Phillips.

The good news

The good news is that Australian households have coped better with the rising cost of living than most other countries, even as housing affordability threatens to hit an all time low.

Ratings agency Fitch reports that late payments on residential mortgages actually fell to 1.42 per cent of all loans in September, down from 1.77 per cent in March 2011.

And it’s anticipated that the Reserve Bank’s recent rate cuts will help to ease further pressure on households struggling to meet their monthly mortgage commitments, with market predictions for up to five more 25 basis-point cuts to come by June.

But back to the problem at hand; households who currently owe more than they own.

How bad is it?

Last year ended with RP Data  reporting Australian property values falling 4 per cent nationally for 2011.

Some markets fell more than this with Brisbane and Melbourne experiencing a 7.5 per cent and 5.8 per cent market value decline respectively with the more expensive end of the market suffering most.

It looks like we have now entered into the stabilization phase of the property cycle in most markets, so prices are unlikely to fall significantly further.

Of course different segments of the market will respond differently this year.

• The established home market is likely to perform better than other sectors
• The first home buyer’s market  is seeing a resurgence of interest, but is going to be very interest rate sensitive
• The investor market (off the plan, mining towns, etc)  is likely to remain subdued until general market confidence returns
• The top end of the market is likely to remain flat or fall a little further until our economy and the share market picks up

Whether you want to rent or buy, finding a new home can be pretty tough without a little help. Thanks to the internet, that help is freely available. There are tons of tips and tools that can help make finding and moving to a new home a lot easier. Here are our top 10 favorites.

Title image remixed from an original by Ben Freedman.

10. Know Your Rights

Whether you plan to rent or buy, you need to know your rights. Renters can quickly find this information in their state’s tenant handbook. To make things simple, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development has a tenants rights page for every state. Just choose yours and start reading. Although homeowner rights will vary from state to state as well, the American Bar Association Family Legal Guide provides some broad answers. To find state-specific rights, just do a web search for “homeowner rights” and the name of your state. In most cases you’ll find a government web site and/or PDF document filled with everything you want to know.

Image via CB Blog Estate.

9. Hire a Reputable Mover

When you’re heading to a new home, hiring a reputable mover is obviously a better idea than hiring a crappy company that’s going to hijack your stuff. Still, it has been known to happen. To make sure you don’t fall victim to a moving scam, you need to sufficiently investigate the moving company you want to use. Consumer rights blog The Consumerist suggests that you check movingscam.com and movingsham.com to make sure the company isn’t blacklisted, know your rights as a customer, check out the mover’s Better Business Bureau record, check the mover’s D.O.T. number, and get at least three estimates in writing before making a decision. You may also want to consider using a tool like Angie’s List to avoid misleading, fake reviews.

8. Figure Out Your Budget for Owning a Home

Want to own a home but aren’t sure how much you can afford? MSN has an home affordability calculator that can help you out. You just enter the cost of your current financial obligations, how much you make, and a few other statistics to find out the cost of a home you can afford. If you’re thinking of buying, this is a quick way to get an approximate idea of what’s in your price range.

7. Score Free Moving Boxes and Packing Supplies

You don’t have to pay (much) for packing supplies. To start, there are plenty of ways to get free moving boxes. Craigslist, Freecycle, restaurants, grocery stores, furniture stores, and liquor stores are all great options. If you can’t locate any for free, however, you can always buy them on the cheap at UsedCardboardBoxes.com. If you want them new you’re definitely going to pay a bit more, but ULine is a great resource for getting everything you need delivered for a reasonable price.

6. Find a Real Estate Broker and Find Homes

If you’re buying a home, the first thing you’re going to need to do is find one and chances are you’ll need a broker or agent’s help to do that. Homethinking provides a broker search for both buyers and sellers and includes some helpful statistics on your options. If you’re just looking to search existing listings, Redfin can show you plenty of options in a given area with helpful statistics. It even includes a mortgage calculator on each listing page to help you figure out what you’ll need to pay per month depending on your term. Both are helpful tools when you’re getting started in your search for a new home.

5. Simplify the Moving Process

Moving isn’t fun or easy, but you can make it a little less painful. We’ve offered up a complete guide to a smooth move, but there are a couple of tools that are particularly helpful. WordLabel’s Moving Label Kit can make organizing and labeling your boxes a breeze with very little effort. Templating your furniture by outlining each piece with paper can save a ton of time when you’re figuring out where to put everything in your new place. When you’re done moving, you’re going to have a ton of leftover boxes. Post them on Craigslist or Freecycle so others can use them and move on the cheap (like you did, presuming you followed item #7).

4. Bring This Printable Checklist Form When You’re Apartment Hunting

If you’re looking for a new apartment, you need to know what questions to ask so you don’t end up moving in to a place that looks great but is actually terrible. We decided to help you out and put together this printable checklist form that you can take with you to a showing. It includes all the common questions you should ask (plus a few tech-friendly ones) so you’ll learn everything you need to learn and have it nicely organized for when it comes time to weigh your options and make a decision.

3. Map Apartment Listings In Your Area with PadMapper

PadMapper is a fantastic tool for finding a new apartment. You type in the area where you want to look, and it lays out your options on Google Maps. From there you can filter based on tons of criteria like price, bedrooms, and listing age. PadMapper also offers helpful statistics, such as crime in the area and if a particular listing is more or less expensive than the area’s average. It’s a great web app, but if you’d prefer to conduct your search on your mobile device you can pick up the free PadMapper mobile app for iPhone and Android.

2. Find Out If You Should Buy or Rent

Buying isn’t always better than renting. In many cases it can be more costly, or at least not the best way to invest your money. It’s best to compare your options first. The New York Times offers this renting versus buying calculator that can help you figure out what’s currently in your best interest.

1. Get Neighborhood and Property Statistics

Whether you want to look at property statistics in a given area or check out tons of information on a specific home, Trulia is a great resource for both. Just type in the location you want to investigate and it will provide you with tons of statistics. It’s kind of like stalking a house. You can find purchase histories, property tax information, how the area rates in various categories, the selling cost of nearby homes (if you’re looking at something specific), and much more. Another tool you’ll want to check out is Zillow, which also provides many useful statistics. As an added bonus, it has a mobile app for most platforms so you can look up information on the go.

Whilst we do not expect the market to crash, it will be increasingly difficult to make new sales.

People will, of course, purchase new property, but the property on offer will need to be better tailored for, and marketed to them.

The development industry has become quite sloppy in recent times.  Sales down south (Victoria largely) have been too easy and the attention to service/detail limited at best.

Things are now changing.  Melbourne is past its peak and is at 1 o’clock on the property clock.  The Victorian market is now oversupplied with both new and existing stock; confidence is low and there are fewer jobs being created today than in the recent past.

End prices are also high and somewhat unaffordable.  Rental growth, whilst still positive, is now sluggish and is likely to remain so, with the city having the highest vacancy rate of any Australian capital, at over 4%.

Brisbane, my home town, in contrast is at the bottom of the cycle and is about to experience a recovery.  As noted above, Brisbane was in the same position as Melbourne was in mid-2007.

It has taken four years – last year’s flood did delay Brisbane’s upturn by about a year – for Brisbane to start showing signs of improvement.  It could take Melbourne this long too – at best two to three years – to recover.  History – as well as Mr Twain – supports our claim.

There are several things that the development community can do to improve sales.

• Make their projects look different.  Buyers tell us that they are all too generic.

• Provide a lot more detail about future development, in their project itself and in the local area.  Detail is expected regarding the citing of homes and such things as outside entertainment areas, bedrooms and air-conditioning.  In a perfect world, developers would be best to sell built stock.

• Don’t hide anything from the public, including full price lists and dwelling designs.  They know much more about the project and the competition than sales people give them credit for.

• Implement a loyalty system.  Repeat customers should be treated as such.

• Match sales staff (demographic, experience) and the décor, interiors and furnishings (the actual product design of course) to the demographic.  A 25-year old single selling to a middle-aged couple doesn’t work too well.

• Make much more of your brand and development pedigree.  Buyers want to know more about who you are.

• Relax at the launch.  Don’t put too much pressure on potential buyers then…the time to close is much later in the sales process.

• Follow-up constantly and not just before settlement.  Buyers want to be informed.

On a final note – people buy something new because it should be less hassle than buying second-hand and fixing it up.  Developers need to ensure that the buying experience is hassle-free too.

New developments meet today’s strict environmental compliances, which help save buyers money and also give them peace of mind when it comes to resale.

For investors, buying something new often provides a better return.  This is due to the attractive depreciation allowances that come with buying new over old – something that too few investors understand – and that new property, on average, has 15% to 20% more value in it than an older property in the same area.  Think about the true cost of a new kitchen, bathrooms, carpeting, painting, landscaping and again all the ESD stuff.

via matusikmissive.wordpress.com

By Terry Ryder, 7th February 2012

The extraordinary ability of economists to collectively get in wrong most of the time has again been demonstrated, with the Reserve Bank deciding at its meeting today to keep interest rates on hold.

Most economists had bet the Reserve Bank would cut rates by 0.25 percentage points, apparently convinced that worries about the economic situation in Europe would be the key issue.

A survey of 18 economists by Dow Jones Newswires showed that 16 expected the RBA to lower its cash rate to 4 per cent.

Economists said that the RBA had room to cut rates largely because they remained high by world standards. The weak global economic backdrop, evidence of accelerating layoffs locally, and low inflation helped round out the justification for a cut.

However, rates will remain at 4.25% for at least another month. The RBA cut rates in both November and December and clearly feels that is enough for now, particularly with so much conflicting data around at the moment.

Retail sales have continued to be patchy but job advertisements in January showed a strong rise and real estate data continues to be more positive.

Headlines in the past week have included these, as media has indulged the chattering economists, despite their tendency to be off-target with their forecasts:–

Interest rate cut increasingly likely

Economic data points to interest rate cut

Interest rates poised to drop amid flat retail sales

RBA tipped to lower cash rate after data shows economy struggling

If you read the mainstream you probably think it’s bad news for Australia if house prices keep falling.

That it’ll be bad for the banks (which it will be). And that the entire Aussie economy will grind to a halt.

But what if that doesn’t matter?

What if falling house prices is actually a good thing?

In a moment we’ll explain why bad news for the housing market could mean good news for stocks…

But first, some in the mainstream still can’t accept what’s happening.

In today’s the Age, Ian Verrender writes:

“Rather than the much-heralded assault on the Australian residential housing market, as has been predicted for the past five years by an ever-increasing host of international and domestic doomsayers, we are instead witnessing an orderly retreat.”

Arguing against a house price crash is so 2009.

Perhaps Mr. Verrender should look at the latest press release from RP Data. Especially the following chart:

Tell buyers in Brisbane, Melbourne, Hobart, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin prices haven’t crashed. Remember it wasn’t so long ago the mainstream told you Aussie house prices can’t fall.

In reality, the crash started long ago and is in full flight now. It’s wreaking havoc on those who expected to make a killing buying a house two years ago.

But now they’re learning Borrowing 101 the hard way. They’ve found out leverage is a double-edged sword. You benefit when prices rise. But you lose when prices fall. For the poor souls who bought at the peak, using a 90-95% mortgage, they’re already in negative equity.

In fact, a buyer needs prices to rise at least 10% in the first year just to break even – after factoring in buying costs and mortgage costs. So when prices fall 8.7% (as they have in Brisbane), it’s a big deal.

Because now those buyers need the price to rise at least 20% to get back to square one. And the more time passes without prices going up, the worse it gets. The knock-on effect is others will fall into negative equity too.

This is something most of the so-called property experts don’t get. They’re too busy with their fancy spreadsheets and economic models to fathom the impact of falling credit.

But failure to understand credit isn’t their biggest mistake. Their biggest mistake is to think housing drives economic progress.

It doesn’t.

Housing is the reward for economic progress.

Or that’s how it should be.

Except the credit bubble distorted the market. Rather than working hard to achieve the reward, credit has allowed consumers to get the reward first with the promise they’ll earn it later with hard work.

Trouble is, with so much effort going into building the reward, they forget about the rest of the economy. We liken it to an athlete stuffing his face with cream cakes before the race because he’s so certain he’ll win. Only, when it comes to running the race, with a belly full of cake, the athlete is no longer in the right shape to win.

That’s what happened to the U.K and U.S. housing markets. And it happened to the Aussie housing market too.

With so many resources going into building houses and apartments… and so much bank lending going towards housing… real businesses miss out.

But now, with falling house prices, could this actually spell good news for Aussie businesses and stocks? If so, it could mean higher stock prices and bigger returns on your investments.

Think about it…

You could see a shift towards stocks if investors wake up to the idea that housing is an expensive investment and that returns aren’t guaranteed.

If you’re an investor who’s concerned about the future, do you really want to take out a six-figure mortgage and pay tens of thousands of dollars in buying and holding costs? Or would you rather stick cash in the bank and take a few speculative punts on the stock market?

And consider this: is it a coincidence that U.S. home prices keep falling even though the U.S. stock market has more than doubled since March 2009?

Of course, central bank money-printing and low interest rates have played a large part in boosting stock prices.

But why didn’t it boost house prices? Simple, because housing is expensive and investors lost faith in the ability to make a buck from it.

Now, “Australia is different”, you’re always told. Because, in Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) can lower interest rates to stop house prices falling, boost demand and push prices up.

So far that hasn’t happened. In fact, the latest home sales numbers show the RBA’s last two interest rate cuts haven’t helped the Aussie housing market.

As even the housing bulls at CommSec note…

“New home sales fell by 4.9 per cent in December and was holding just shy of the 11-year lows reached in September.”

If what happened in the U.S (and U.K.) is anything to go by, there’s a good chance the same pattern will repeat here: investors will stay clear of expensive housing and buy stocks instead.

Remember, interest rates are low because central bankers want to stimulate the economy… because investors, consumers and businesses are cautious.

And as long as that continues (and it seems set to) it’s unlikely consumers will borrow large amounts of money to buy risky, illiquid and over-priced housing…

Not when you can buy dividend paying stocks that pay an income stream and growth stocks that you don’t need to borrow a fortune to buy.

Already Aussie investors are unknowingly following the lead from overseas. They’re getting tired of falling bank deposit rates and are instead looking at the risky and liquid but not over-priced shares in the stock market.

As far as 2012 goes, there’s no argument. The more house prices fall, the better it is for stocks.

Cheers.
Kris.

via moneymorning.com.au