Is he right?
Well…2012 will be a tough year for property, but before I answer the question I posed, I’d like to mention that I find it interesting that Professor Keen is only predicting a 10% drop.
In the past he saw houses prices falling 40%. He made a public statement and put his money where his mouth was selling his home in Sydney a few years ago just before prices boomed.
Keen, who was forced to take a hike up Mt Kosciuszko in 2010 after losing a bet that house prices would fall 40 per cent, recently forecast a drop of between 5 and 10 per cent next year because buyers would opt to pay off loans rather than take on more debt.
In an article in the Sydney Morning Herald experts were lining up to contradict the extremist property analyst Steve Keen’s prediction with most forecasting moderate growth.
Releasing the Australian Property Monitors‘ property market outlook, senior economist Andrew Wilson tipped 3 to 5 per cent growth in median house prices nationally and for Sydney.
Dr Wilson believes ”demand for housing will intensify”, pushing up prices.
Median house prices nationally had dropped 4.2 per cent over 2011, he said, and 1.6 per cent in the October quarter.
Of course we’ve had two interest arte drops recently, but concerns about the European economy are taking their toll, with most Australian’s preferring to stash their cash or pay down debt as they see how things play out overseas. Many potential property buyers are waiting to make sure house prices don’t fall further.
Looking ahead, Dr Wilson said that since Australia’s economic fundamentals were strong, the nation was well positioned to weather any downturn in international markets.
”This, coupled with renewed buyer confidence, will be the key to driving prices growth in the new year,” he said.
Brisbane and Perth to do well
He said that Brisbane, the worst performer this year with prices down almost 7 per cent mainly due to the devastating January floods, would bounce back between 5 and 10 per cent off the back of the resources boom.
Likewise, Perth and Darwin. But Melbourne, due to big price rises in 2009 and 2010 and an apartment oversupply, could expect growth of between 0 and 3 per cent.
Shane Oliver, the head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital Investors, also disagreed with Keen. ”Didn’t he forecast a 40 per cent drop a few years ago?” he joked.
However, Oliver isn’t as upbeat as the others, expecting a weak start to 2012 because of economic uncertainty. Over the year, he says prices could drop 1 or 2 per cent nationally but he is more optimistic about Sydney. ”I’m expecting modest gains over the year of maybe 1 or 2 per cent for Sydney,” he said.