If you’re a long-time reader of Money Morning you’ll know we made some housing market predictions about the Australian housing market crash. Did we get it right? Yes… and no.
We said it would crash. And in some states it already has – Queensland and Western Australia. In other states, such as South Australian and Tasmania, prices are moving lower (or “soft” as the spruikers like to put it).
Even in Victoria and New South Wales the gains have stopped and prices are falling. According to RPData, Melbourne house prices are down 4.4% over the past year. And as we see it, further falls are on the way.
That much we got right. What we didn’t get right was the timing. Our housing market predictions said prices would drop in 2009 and 2010. But they didn’t really start to hit the fan until the end of 2010 – remember that Queensland house prices started to slump before the floods.
So arguably you could have ignored our housing market predictions in 2008 and 2009 and made some good gains. Trouble is, by the time house prices started to drop in 2010 it was too late to benefit from the gains.
For most, paper profits went up in smoke.
But only now is the mainstream catching up. Today’s the Age reports, “House prices at risk from Europe crisis”. Again, nice advice… but where was the advice two years ago when it could have prevented over-leveraged first time buyers from making a terrible mistake.
It’s the same with stock market predictions. We’ve warned since the market started to rally in 2008 that the gains were illusory. It was all based on stimulus and false hopes.